Why rebar prices rose?

National rebar so appear more substantial rise, Chen Kexin believes that sum up, there are two main factors.

The first is the limited production of asymmetry

In order to prevent and control haze, the heating season to implement the limited production, although the "double-edged sword" for the supply and demand both ends of the same restraining effect, Chen Kexin believes that this effect is inconsistent, with obvious strength the difference. First, the smog mainly occurs in the northern part of the country. In winter, heating is also mainly in the northern part. This region, especially in North China, is also the main producing area for China's rebar and accounts for a large proportion of the national output. Steel industry in the heating season is generally limited, the supply of China's rebar is greatly inhibited, while winter outdoor construction in the northern region has already been a seasonal shutdown, whether limited or not, the demand impact on the northern region is not large, which is the first An asymmetry. Second, from the perspective of the national region, the southern region where the incidence of haze is not high is under construction as usual during the shutdown of the northern steelmakers. This is the second asymmetry in the impact of the limited production on both ends of the demand. Chen Kexin believes precisely because of the above asymmetry of limited production, so since this period the national inventory of steel rebar and other steel stocks continued to decline, so I still maintain the same point of view the previous period: heating limited production of some steel varieties will appear supply Tight.

Followed by the capital power to take the opportunity to speculation

Chen Kexin believes that the limited supply of both ends of the asymmetry of supply and demand, some species may therefore appear tight supply expectations, of course, speculation will be the subject of speculative capital. It should be said that there is no shortage of money in the Chinese market today, but the access to the real economy is not smooth, while the financial strength in some areas is very strong. For example, market monitoring data show that from the current futures and stock market in the plate point of view, the black department this year, the current round of the Treasury favorable thermal block, becoming the hot plate of sustained precipitation, since June compared to the other plate size The gap further widened to 34.3% of the total position amount, well above the level of 26% from September to December last year. A lot of money into the rebar futures and spot areas, will undoubtedly make the market a fierce game. Chen Kexin believes it is precisely because of the strength of both sides of the game as mentioned above that the source of speculation is constantly being sought. Therefore, in the new year, supply-side reform, excess capacity of steel and the banning of "strip steel" will become topics of speculation and will not disappear , So going to capacity will become a long story of speculation. Of course, such speculation themes will not always appear on the same face, but will continue to change forms. For example, in the new year, going to the production capacity and banning the "strip steel" will appear in the form of prevention and resurgence, consolidation of capacity-to-productivity results, and new environmental inspection.

It is worth noting that it is noteworthy that with the continuous rise of domestic rebar prices over a period of time, the stage of low price restoration has been completed and entered into a profitable period (for the rebar only), as a result, The major challenge of consolidating the achievements in eliminating production capacity and banning the "strip steel" has resulted in a game between inspection and supervision and "stealing", further reinforcing the market pressure of rebar.